Calibrated
Question 1/10 · Caught 0
Give a range you're 90% sure contains the answer. If your confidence is honest, nine of ten ranges will catch it. Almost nobody's do.
The question
Under the hood
A hit means the truth landed inside your range. Calibration means your hit rate matches your stated confidence: ranges offered at 90% should catch the answer 90% of the time. In the classic studies (Alpert & Raiffa onward), most people's 90% intervals catch roughly half.
Your calibration
0/10 caught at "90%"
Why this matters
Calibration is the simplest test of judgment there is: when you say 90%, are you right 90% of the time? In the classic studies (Alpert & Raiffa's MBA experiments onward), people's "90%" intervals contain the truth roughly half the time. Experts included. Confidence and accuracy are different skills.
This shows up everywhere forecasts are made: revenue plans with one number instead of a range, project dates with no error bars, risk reads that feel precise because they're specific. The fix is uncomfortable-looking ranges — honest confidence is usually wider than feels professional.